It's anyone's race

[attach]4861[/attach]Davenport is one of the few Toronto ridings in the spotlight during this election mainly for what it is lacking: an incumbent Member of Provincial Parliament.

With longtime Davenport rep Tony Ruprecht retiring from politics, the race in the riding is wide open. There is a nine-candidate roster, and the major parties have placed some profile reps in the hopes of attracting voters in the neighbourhoods of Lansdowne, Fairbank, Oakwood, Corso Italia, Regal Heights and Dovercourt.

Liberal candidate Cristina Martins is a health sector professional, and president of the Federation of Portuguese Canadian Business and Professionals. New Democratic Party hopeful Jonah Schein holds a Master’s degree in social work and is active at the Stop Community Food Centre. Progressive Conservative candidate Kirk Russell is the owner of a construction company. And Green candidate Frank De Jong is a former party leader.

Davenport’s constituency is unusual in that it’s traditionally been wooed by the personalities that represented it rather than party platforms, says Akaash Maharaj, former national policy chair for the Liberal Party of Canada. He said Ruprecht, who’s represented the riding since 1999, was considered more of a local advocate than a province-wide legislator.

“The man could have written the handbook on retail politics,” he said. “I think the iron-clad grip that he had on the riding was probably at least as much a reflection of the extent to which he doggedly worked the riding as an individual as it was that he was a Liberal.”

Maharaj said it’s unlikely any of the current candidates can garner the name recognition Ruprecht had in the riding.

“I would not be surprised if people are looking for a wholesale change now that the MPP is changing,” he said.

The riding was one very few to vote in favour of an electoral system based on proportional representation during the 2007 referendum.

“The fact a majority of people in that riding knew enough about the alternative that was being offered and had thought about it enough to come to the conclusion that they were willing to change their electoral system suggested the people living in that riding are more politically engaged … than the average person,” said Maharaj.

If the federal election is any indication of how parties will place provincially, the riding may go from red to orange at Queen’s Park. During May’s federal election, Davenport was swept up in the so-called Orange Crush, which saw Davenport Liberal MP Mario Silva get knocked out of his seat by NDP newcomer Andrew Cash.

Another big factor in the race for Davenport is the immigrant vote. Davenport has traditionally been an entry point for new immigrants coming to Toronto. While immigrants in the past have tended to vote Liberal, Maharaj says that vote can no longer be taken for granted.

In the past 20 years, immigrants and minorities have become more politically aware and thus their voting patterns diversify.

Perhaps making the race even harder to predict is the changing demographics. According to Maharaj, the profile of the riding is also in the midst of change due to rising real estate prices and proximity to downtown core, thus making it more attractive to wealthier people and those who may be more established in the country.

All indications show the race for Davenport will be a close one, given the lack of incumbent and the spread of votes amongst the nine candidates.