Our new reality: get used to less

Welcome to 2011. There is no doubt about it. The well-to-do residents of midtown, and in fact the neighbourhoods that line the waterfront and the Yonge subway up to Hwy. 401, are the privileged demographic increasingly surrounded by poorer populations on either side and in the inner suburbs.

This has profound implications for city services and municipal politics. It was this poorer population that voted overwhelmingly for Rob Ford — the voters who bought into the argument that well served, self satisfied elites in the old Toronto tolerated flagrant abuse of taxpayer dollars. It is they who will benefit more from the cancellation of the vehicle transfer tax and the land transfer tax, and from a Sheppard subway that will make it easier to come to jobs.

David Hulchanski, Associate Director of the Cities Centre at the University of Toronto, caused quite a stir recently with his widely publicized study that showed Toronto is indeed becoming a city of stark economic extremes as its middle class is hollowed out and replaced by a bipolar city of the rich and poor. He found that a predominantly middle-class metropolis just three decades ago is increasingly dominated by two opposite populations — one with an average income of $88,400, and another of $26,900.

It is the richer neighbourhoods who are not as car dependent, who have far better transit and better city services in general. On the other hand, they also have the anxiety of the gangs and crime that neighbouring poor communities produce. And, curiously, the old Toronto, despite its economic divisions, is for the moment at least largely liberal (both small and large “L”), while the inner suburbs and the 905 communities that surround them are becoming more and more conservative. Note the election of Julian Fantino for the Harper government in formerly resolutely Liberal Vaughan.

The polarized city means that an increasing burden of welfare, community housing and social services falls on the shoulders of the inner city and midtown taxpayer. We have to ask ourselves, what are the implications for our sense of social justice with the size and extent of low-income neighbourhoods on the increase in our midst. The demand for more social housing. The revitalization of Lawrence Heights — the largest Toronto social housing complex after Regent Park — is at our doorstep.

Note that another study shows what has happened to Toronto’s so-called middle class. It has quite simply migrated out of the City of Toronto and has settled in the outer suburbs.

Urtaza Haider, a Ryerson professor, argues convincingly that “(the suburban) middle class comprises growing families with children who need more shelter space at affordable prices, which is abundantly available in the outer suburbs. Furthermore, financially stable and multigenerational immigrant households abandon Toronto at an increasing rate since they crave affordable shelter space”. These outer suburbs have a growing, not shrinking, tax base — like Toronto.

They are more egalitarian; there is little poverty in Markham or Vaughan or Mississauga. For these communities the car is king and roads, not public transit, the priority. They drive long distances to work, or to the GO station. And they will shift the political balance both provincially and federally.

So what’s the bottom line for midtowners? Perhaps it is that we are going to have to adjust to the new demographic reality which forces economies and different priorities a la Ford on Toronto not faced by our 905 brethren.

It’s clear that Toronto can no longer afford a “politics of irresponsible profligacy” as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman pointed out in a Sunday column.

“The leaders who will deserve praise in this new era are those who develop a hybrid politics that persuades a majority of voters to cut where we must so we can invest where we must,” Friedman wrote.

Let’s make sure that this is what a Ford administration delivers. Get ready: the new Toronto is not about us getting more. It’s about getting used to less.

And being prepared to invest in a more equitable Toronto.